The East African Drought and Famine in 2011
Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda are the countries of East Africa most affected by the drought as of the middle of 2011. By mid 2011, the Canada Foodgrains Bank estimates that some 46,000 people are in critical need. However, they also report that the World Food Program estimates that 10 million people "require food assistance".
The two-year drought in this region is "the worst to hit the area in 60 years". Lack of rain causes the vegetation to die. When the grass of the grazelands fails to sustain the cattle, their owners will have no assets and nothing to eat.
Is it only ill fortune that led to this state of affairs? No, there are several contributing factors. These include the usual climate, patterns of land use, human behaviour, and a surprising contribution by La Niña.
The Precarious State of Agriculture and Forests in East Africa
A decade ago, the United Nations reported that East Africa is "relatively dry" and "influenced by the Sahara Desert". Northern Sudan, west of Ethiopia and well north of Uganda, is completely covered by desert. However, low annual rainfall is no great hardship if that has been a consistent climate pattern: the population would remain low and the few people would have adapted to the scarce resources.
The movement of refugees who cross borders to avoid civil wars disturbs any stability in supply and demand. For example, many Somalians have fled to Ethiopia and Kenya.
As well, war and civil unrest inevitably lead to lower agricultural production. Landowners and workers either become caught up in conflicts or leave the land fallow.
Throughout the world, forests have provided a buffer zone where agriculture can expand, although usually at the expense of wildlife and biodiversity. East Africa faces considerable challenges here as well.
The UN report noted that East Africa uses wood for fuel. Rising populations lead to deforestation, but replanting is not keeping up with consumption. Ethiopia depends heavily on agriculture, including animal husbandry, and so has limited forest cover for future exploitation as cropland. Kenya has "industrial forest plantations"; it also protects indigenous reserves for wildlife to support the important tourism industry.
Thus, East Africa is beset by a group of local issues. This region does not have an abundance of rainfall at the best of times. Human conflicts have upset the long-standing patterns for supply and demand. A growing population raises the demand for food and fuel, which can reduce the forest cover and may cause long-term problems for water conservation.
The Pacific's La Niña Affects East Africa's Weather
In " Drought in East Africa ", NASA reported that the cool La Niña current in the Pacific Ocean often reduces the rainfall in East Africa's wet season.
The La Niña pattern puts rain, with possible flooding, into Australia, Indonesia and southern Asia. That precipitation becomes unavailable to eastern Africa, resulting in drought conditions. Normally this region receives enough rain from October through December for the vegetation to grow and survive through another year.
In the first image, the brown areas show where the vegetation is doing more poorly than normal.
Page 22 of the NOAA "ENSO Cycle..." report confirmed that the two most recent La Niña episodes were from August of 2007 through June of 2008, and June of 2010 through May of 2011. (One El Niño was recorded from May 2009 through May 2010).
Since there seems to be a continuing cycle that alternates between La Niña and El Niño, it is likely that East Africa will experience periodic droughts over the next decades or centuries.
The Current Status of the East African Drought and Famine
During the recent "wet" season, the Somalia Water and Land Information Management program reported that two-thirds of the country received only three-quarters of its normal rainfall. Both crops and pastures are now failing to provide enough nourishment for people and livestock.
As noted above, Canada Foodgrains and also the UN have raised significant concerns about food scarcity in this region. Both organizations, and their partner agencies, are working on short-term aid and medium-term solutions for the people of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda affected by drought and famine.
References:
Canada Foodgrains Bank, "Foodgrains Bank Responds to East Africa Drought", July 12, 2011, referenced July 22, 2011.
Holli Riebeek, NASA, " Drought in East Africa ", 2011, referenced July 22, 2011.
NOAA and Climate Prediction Centre/NCEP, "ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions", published July 18, 2011, PDF referenced July 22, 2011.
UN Food and Agriculture Organization, "Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000: East Africa", 2000, referenced July 22, 2011.
Mike DeHaan - Copyright (c) Mike DeHaan, B. Math., of DeHaan Services. Well written and well researched freelance articles; ghost writing for clients.
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